A high-risk market-timing strategy that usually bets hard on small U.S. stocks, but switches into volatility, tech, short positions, or bonds when the market looks overheated or weak.

This strategy constantly asks: “Is the U.S. stock market healthy, overheated, or weak?” It uses SPY (big U.S. stocks), QQQ (large tech stocks), and IWM (smaller U.S. stocks) as market thermometers. In strong markets, it usually buys UWM, a fund that tries to amplify moves in smaller U.S. companies. If the market looks too hot, it may switch to UVXY (a volatility bet) or reduce risk by splitting between IWM and very short-term Treasury bonds. In weaker markets, it sometimes makes a rebound bet on TECL (leveraged tech), sometimes bets against small companies with RWM, and otherwise hides in bonds or whichever defensive holding has the best recent behavior.

Out-of-sample, this tactical strategy targets higher long-run growth (23.4% vs 17.0% S&P) by riding bull markets with leveraged small caps/tech and hedging in heat or volatility—offering strong upside with higher drawdown risk.