The Wild West of Short Term Treasury Trading
Today’s Change (Sep 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily strategy that switches between 3x long and 3x short 20+yr U.S. Treasuries, guided by many short‑term cross‑market signals and TLT overbought/oversold readings. Occasional small equity sleeve. Very high return potential with big swings.
It makes daily, rules‑based bets on long‑dated U.S. Treasuries both up and down using leveraged funds: TMF (3x long) when bonds likely rise, TMV (3x short) when they likely fall. Dozens of quick signals compare recent 1–4 week performance of “inflation” vs “defensive” markets (e.g., oil vs staples). If riskier assets lead, it shorts; if defensives lead, it buys. A short‑term TLT RSI (an ‘overbought/oversold’ score) can also flip the stance. Signals are blended and sized by volatility.
Out-of-sample edge: ~24% annualized return vs SPY ~16%; Sharpe ~1.55 vs 1.18; max drawdown ~4% vs 8.9%; Calmar ~6.05; beta ~-0.05; alpha ~0.24%. Higher returns with a smoother downside than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 472.66% | 14.01% | -0.5% | 2.26% | 0.86 | |
| 132,327.13% | 71.65% | 2.74% | 3.78% | 2.57 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$13,242,712.68Regulatory Fees
$37,524.72
Total Slippage
$309,023.81
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 6, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Rates trading,long/short treasuries,leveraged etfs,momentum,mean‑reversion,tactical asset allocation,systematic,high‑volatility
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 22 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DGT
State Street SPDR Global Dow ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
IGV
iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
Stocks
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
Stocks
MTUM
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
Stocks
PICB
Invesco International Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
RSPU
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks