The Treasury Effect
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A four-sleeve, rule-based strategy that blends treasury ballast with opportunistic, leverage-fed equity bets and volatility hedges. It shifts assets based on simple price/momentum signals to smooth risk while chasing upside in favorable regimes; always with a defensive treasury core to dampen drawdowns.
Think of four separate teams (symphonies) all playing at once. Each team has a list of possible investments (tickers like TMF, TMV, SHV, SPY, QQQ, TECL, TQQQ, SOXL, SVXY, VIXY, etc.). Instead of picking one winner, the rules say: when the market looks friendly, pick the strongest performers and put more money into them; when the market looks scary or whippy, shift into safer or hedged bets. A few simple ideas power this:
- Price versus moving average: is the current price above or below its longer-term average? If it’s above, the team might take more risk; if below, it stays defensive.
- Momentum or strength: is the asset’s recent momentum strong or weak? They use a momentum-like check (drawn from RSI concepts) to avoid buying assets that just peaked.
- Relative strength: among several candidates, the “top” performers over a window get picked (top movers by returns).
- Regime thinking: some teams focus on a bear-market or sideways-market mindset (favoring hedges like inverse volatility or bear/neutral bets); others chase upside in strong uptrends (leveraged tech bulls).
- Treasury ballast: key sleeves hold Treasuries (and related funds) to dampen drawdowns when stocks stumble. This ballast is deliberately weighted to smooth the equity curve and provide downside protection.
- No fixed calendar rebalancing: positions aren’t rebalanced on a clock; instead, signals trigger adjustments, within a tight corridor (2% width) to prevent overtrading.
What this means for a lay user: the system is designed to stay in a defensive posture most of the time (treasury ballast) but spring into aggressive, momentum-driven bets when the signals look favorable, and to hedge against volatility spikes. The exact mix shifts with market mood, aiming to keep risk lower than a pure stock portfolio while still capturing upside in favorable regimes. Remember: it relies on complex, rule-based decisions and uses levered funds, which can magnify both gains and losses, especially over shorter horizons.
Regime-based, four-sleeve strategy with a Treasury ballast and hedges seeks upside in favorable markets while smoothing risk. Out-of-sample: strong diversification and risk controls that complement SPY, helping resilience when markets swing—even if raw return trails SPY.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 1, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, regime-based, momentum, hedging, leveraged etfs, risk-controlled
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 27 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SCO
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks