The Treasury Effect
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A 4-part trading system that mixes Treasury-bond timing with aggressive stock, hedge, and volatility trades to try to grow faster while softening big market drops.
This strategy splits money into 4 mini-strategies.
About half focuses on U.S. Treasury bond trades, shifting between long bonds, short bonds, and cash-like holdings based on whether bond prices look strong, weak, or stretched.
The other half is much more aggressive: it rotates among tech-heavy stock funds, inverse funds that profit when markets fall, and volatility funds when fear spikes.
Out-of-sample edge: ~22.6% annualized return vs SPY ~18.5%, with beta near 1 and Calmar around 1. A 50/50 blend of Treasury timing and hedged equity/volatility bets aims for stronger upside than the S&P while keeping drawdowns in check.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 | 0.65 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 672.84% | 14.82% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.92 | |
| 609,058.7% | 80.18% | -8.71% | -4.23% | 2.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$60,915,869.70Regulatory Fees
$159,809.60
Total Slippage
$1,472,038.21
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 1, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, treasuries, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, momentum, mean reversion, volatility trading
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 27 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SCO
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks