The Treasury Effect
Today’s Change (Sep 21, 2026)
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About
A 4‑engine, ~50/50 mix of tactical Treasuries and aggressive tech/volatility trades. It rides trends with leveraged ETFs, parks in cash when overheated, and flips to hedges/shorts in selloffs to smooth returns and reduce drawdowns.
Four engines; roughly half Treasuries, half aggressive stocks/vol.
1) Trade long‑term Treasuries long/short (TMF/TMV) by trend and a 0–100 “heat” gauge (RSI); park in T‑bills (SHV/BIL) or bonds (BND/TLT) when hot.
2) Second Treasury momentum sleeve.
3) Short‑vol (SVXY) when calm; switch to SPY/BTAL or long‑vol (VIXY/UVXY) on risk spikes.
4) Tech momentum (TQQQ/TECL/SOXL/UPRO/UDOW) in bulls; cut/hedge with cash, PSQ/SQQQ on weakness. Moving averages=trend lines.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~28% annualized return vs ~20% for the S&P, with a Calmar ~1.22 and solid drawdown controls. Higher upside accompanies larger drawdown risk; Sharpe is competitive though not always higher.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 667.68% | 14.9% | -0.5% | 2.26% | 0.92 | |
| 656,085.98% | 82.05% | 1.51% | 6.09% | 2.54 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$65,618,597.90Regulatory Fees
$153,907.24
Total Slippage
$1,416,210.39
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 1, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset tactical, regime switching, trend + mean reversion, leveraged & inverse etfs, volatility carry, treasury overlay
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 27 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SCO
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks