A daily market-timing strategy that buys a risk-on basket of small caps and cyclical sectors when conditions look favorable or oversold, but quickly shifts into inverse stock funds or T-bills when markets look overheated or weak.

This strategy checks each day whether the stock market looks too hot, too weak, or beaten down. It uses a “speed gauge” of recent price moves (RSI) and trend tests. If markets look overheated, it shifts into funds that rise when stocks fall, mainly against the S&P 500 and sometimes emerging markets or the Nasdaq. If markets look oversold or trend is supportive, it buys a riskier basket focused on small U.S. companies, banks, industrials, defense, and a little high-growth tech. If conditions look poor, it may sit in very short-term Treasury bills.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.39 vs 0.94; annualized return 25.6% vs 15.2%; Calmar 1.27; beta ~0.48. A dynamic market-timing strategy designed to beat the S&P by riding trends and hedging risk when markets heat up.