A regime-driven, cash-centric strategy using QQQ momentum (RSI) and SPY trend signals to switch between hedges (UVXY/BIL), leveraged Nasdaq bets (TQQQ/QLD), and diversifiers (UPW/GLD), aiming to balance risk and potential upside across stress, rebound, and uptrend phases.

- Start with cash and decide how to allocate among a few ETFs rather than buying a single market fund. - Use RSI of QQQ to gauge extreme market conditions: very high RSI suggests overbought/fragile Nasdaq conditions; very low RSI suggests oversold/bounce potential. - If RSI(QQQ) is above 79: shift to hedged/capital-protective stance by buying UVXY (volatility) and BIL (short-term Treasuries) in a 40/60 split, aiming to cushion a drawdown and preserve capital during stress. - If RSI(QQQ) is below 31: favor a bullish tilt by buying TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) and BIL in a 40/60 split, seeking a counter-move rebound with some capital preservation. - If RSI(QQQ) is between 31 and 79: look for market uptrends to justify equity exposure; check SPY’s trend signals via moving averages: • If SPY is trading above its 30-day moving average (short-term uptrend) and the other checks align, allocate to Nasdaq-leveraged ETF (QLD) with supplementary diversification to UPW (utilities) or GLD (gold) depending on deeper sub-conditions. • The system may also consider additional tiers (e.g., SPY > 200-day mean) to slightly tilt toward defensive assets like GLD when longer-term trends weaken. The exact nested decisions are designed to tilt toward QLD when the market shows positive momentum, with occasional diversification to UPW/GLD to balance risk and provide non-equity exposure. - The overall posture is: in strong stress, favor hedges and cash; in clear uptrends, favor leveraged Nasdaq exposure with some diversification; in ambiguous regimes, lean on conditional checks to place some exposure to UPW/GLD. - Rebalance is implied by the structure (weights are defined for sub-choices) rather than a fixed, single-asset target. This aims to adapt the portfolio dynamically to regime changes while maintaining an emphasis on Nasdaq-related bets within a risk-managed framework.

Dynamic, regime-based strategy using QQQ momentum and SPY trends with hedges (UVXY/BIL) and Nasdaq bets (TQQQ/QLD) to diversify risk and capture Nasdaq upside. OOS: ~19.7% return, 11.6% drawdown, Calmar ~1.70 - risk-aware vs S&P.