Samurai Surge - Mar 12
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About
A regime-based tactical mix that shifts between aggressive Nasdaq exposure (including a leveraged proxy) and hedged/cash positions using RSI, moving averages, and bond-driven checks to navigate normal, volatile, and mean-reverting markets.
- It’s a rule-based system that sits in an equity sleeve but uses added hedges and cash proxies to manage risk.
- It defines market regimes: Huge volatility, Normal market, and Mean Reversion. Each regime has its own asset choices and conditions.
- Signals come from multiple sources, most prominently short-term momentum (RSI) on the leveraged Nasdaq proxy (TQQQ) and price relative to moving averages. A very high RSI on TQQQ suggests risk-off or hedged positioning; a lower RSI with other checks suggests mean-reversion opportunities.
- When the system detects risk (huge volatility), it tends to favor cash-like assets (BIL) and hedges (BTAL, VIXY/UVXY) to dampen downside.
- In Mean Rev mode, it looks for oversold/oversold-style signals on TQQQ and may tilt back toward Nasdaq exposure, but with risk controls (e.g., drawdown and bond/stock cross-checks).
- The “Bond > Stock” checks compare bond indicators to stock indicators to decide if the environment is bond-intensive (flighting risk) or more equity-friendly.
- The strategy uses a 10% rebalance corridor to avoid over-trading; actual trades are triggered by regime and signal thresholds, not by daily ticks.
- The basket includes Nasdaq proxies (QQQ, TQQQ), small-cap exposure (IWM), international (IEUR, EURL/EPV in Europe), and a suite of bond/short-rate funds (BND, IEI, IEF, TLT, TMF, BIL) plus volatility hedges (UVXY, VIXY, VIXM) to manage tail risk. The overall aim is to capture upside in favorable regimes while buffering downturns with hedges and safer fixed income cash equivalents.
Regime-driven, rule-based Nasdaq tilt with hedges and cash proxies. OOS: ~108% annualized return, Sharpe ~2.58, beta ~0.45, Calmar ~6.9. Higher upside and lower market beta than the S&P, with disciplined risk controls in volatile regimes.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 16, 2025
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, tactical asset allocation, regime-based, rsi/momentum signals, hedging with volatility
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
EPV
ProShares UltraShort FTSE Europe
Stocks
EURL
Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEUR
iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF
Stocks
IEV
iShares Europe ETF
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks