A very aggressive market-timing strategy that rotates into a single leveraged asset based on market trend, short-term overheating/weakness, and recent winners.

This strategy first asks: is the overall U.S. stock market healthy or weak? It uses SPY (a stand-in for the S&P 500) and compares today’s price to its 200-day average. If the market looks weak, it checks whether aggressive stocks seem beaten down using HIBL. If they do, it buys the risky asset that has bounced the most very recently. If not, it buys whichever asset has been strongest over the last few weeks—even if that is a “fear” trade like volatility or an inverse fund. If the market looks healthy, it usually buys the strongest high-growth asset, but if high-risk stocks look extremely overheated, it switches into a volatility fund that can benefit from a sudden scare.

Regime-switching, momentum-driven strategy pivots to the strongest leveraged and volatility bets. Out-of-sample metrics show attractive risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ~2.1, Calmar ~11) vs the S&P, with higher drawdowns in stress regimes.