Macro Easing Cycle Rotation
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A simple monthly switch: if small US stocks have recently beaten long‑term Treasury bonds, tilt toward small caps and financials; otherwise tilt toward Treasuries and gold, keeping small slices of the other side for diversification.
What the tickers mean: IWM = US small‑company stocks; XLF = big banks/financials; TLT = long‑term US Treasury bonds; GLD = gold; BIL = cash‑like T‑bills.
Each month, compare last‑30‑day results of IWM vs TLT. If IWM did better (risk‑on): ~45% IWM, 35% XLF, 15% TLT, 5% GLD. If TLT did better (risk‑off): ~50% TLT, 30% GLD, 15% IWM, 5% BIL. It leans into growth when stocks lead and into safety when bonds lead.
Ballast strategy: risk-on/risk-off rotation. Out-of-sample, shows smaller drawdowns and lower beta than the S&P 500, with diversification and downside protection. Use as a ballast alongside core equity exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.48 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 519.21% | 10.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.59 | |
| 224.44% | 6.47% | -3.81% | -1.41% | 0.52 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$32,443.74Regulatory Fees
$39.51
Total Slippage
$237.51
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 16, 2026
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, risk-on/risk-off, small caps, financials, treasuries, gold, t-bills, monthly rebalance, momentum
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total