Macro Easing Cycle Rotation
Today’s Change (Apr 21, 2026)
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About
A simple monthly switch: if small US stocks have recently beaten long‑term Treasury bonds, tilt toward small caps and financials; otherwise tilt toward Treasuries and gold, keeping small slices of the other side for diversification.
What the tickers mean: IWM = US small‑company stocks; XLF = big banks/financials; TLT = long‑term US Treasury bonds; GLD = gold; BIL = cash‑like T‑bills.
Each month, compare last‑30‑day results of IWM vs TLT. If IWM did better (risk‑on): ~45% IWM, 35% XLF, 15% TLT, 5% GLD. If TLT did better (risk‑off): ~50% TLT, 30% GLD, 15% IWM, 5% BIL. It leans into growth when stocks lead and into safety when bonds lead.
Out-of-sample shows this strategy underperforming the S&P 500 (annualized −15.3% vs +22%), with negative risk metrics. Use it as a small, transparent diversification sleeve—not a core equity investment.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.48 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 556.04% | 10.49% | 9.27% | 4.88% | 0.6 | |
| 226.08% | 6.47% | 5.05% | -3.18% | 0.52 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$32,608.15Regulatory Fees
$39.56
Total Slippage
$237.62
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 16, 2026
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, risk-on/risk-off, small caps, financials, treasuries, gold, t-bills, monthly rebalance, momentum
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total