KMLM signal experiment {thewizard666} -- Sorted/Inverse vol (No OB/OS checks)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules‑based risk‑on/risk‑off switch: compare simple momentum on equity ETFs to KMLM’s. If equities lead, tilt to tech/growth; otherwise move to defensive sleeves. Uses inverse‑vol sizing and blends three signal flavors (RSI, trend, choppiness).
Each day it compares quick momentum/trend checks on “risk‑on” ETFs to the same check on KMLM (a managed‑futures ETF). If risk‑on looks stronger, it buys them (favoring the least “stretched” one); if not, it holds defenses (BTAL/low‑vol/T‑Bills; sometimes bonds). Positions are sized by inverse volatility. Three signal flavors run in parallel—RSI (a 10–20‑day “heat” score), recent average return (trend), and standard deviation (choppiness)—and their picks are blended 60/40.
Compelling out-of-sample edge: annualized return 19.94% vs S&P 19.58%; lower max drawdown 17.67% vs 18.76%; Calmar ~1.13. Strategy uses adaptive risk-on/off with inverse-vol sizing to capture tech strength while reducing risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/off,momentum (rsi/ma return),inverse-vol sizing,multi-asset etfs,tech/semis tilt,managed-futures signal (kmlm),defensive (btal/splv),leveraged etfs,short-vol (svxy),daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 34 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
EDZ
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
IGM
iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF
Stocks
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
IYW
iShares U.S. Technology ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares
Stocks