KMLM signal experiment {thewizard666} -- Sorted/Inverse vol (No OB/OS checks)
Today’s Change (Apr 21, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rules-based switch: when stocks look stronger than KMLM (managed futures), rotate into risk-on themes (often tech/semis, sometimes 3×) and buy the dip; otherwise hold defensive hedges (BTAL/SPLV/VIX/T‑Bills) or bonds. Sized by inverse volatility.
It compares short-term strength (a 10–20 day “heat gauge” called RSI) of stock themes to KMLM, a managed‑futures fund that often zigzags opposite stocks. If stocks beat KMLM, it buys a small basket in that theme (tech/semis/small‑caps, sometimes 3×) that have dipped the most, sized by inverse volatility.
If not, it holds BTAL/SPLV/VIX funds/T‑Bills or long bonds (TMF). It also tests a few signal flavors and picks one using 10‑day stats. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample edge: ~19.94% annualized return, lower max drawdown (~17.7% vs 18.8%), and Calmar ~1.13. A risk-on/risk-off strategy with managed-futures yardstick provides diversified upside and tighter risk than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.35 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102.35% | 14.52% | 9.27% | 4.88% | 0.88 | |
| 1,190.08% | 63.55% | 1.94% | 7.15% | 2.04 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$129,008.11Regulatory Fees
$454.21
Total Slippage
$2,662.94
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, risk-on/risk-off, rsi-based, kmlm yardstick, inverse-vol sizing, leveraged/inverse etfs, daily rebalance, sector rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 34 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
EDZ
Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
IGM
iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF
Stocks
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
IYW
iShares U.S. Technology ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF
Stocks