HAA CANARY + DUAL MOMENTUM + BLACK SWAN CATCHER
Today’s Change (Mar 23, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily, it first checks for crash warnings and may briefly buy a volatility hedge. If no alarm, a TIPS “canary” decides offense vs. cash. In offense, it owns the 4 strongest assets (stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate) by multi‑window momentum.
Each day: 1) Look for crash warnings. If markets look “too hot” or volatility is heating up, switch to a volatility hedge (UVXY). If it’s already extreme, sit in T‑Bills (BIL). 2) If no alarm, check TIP (a TIPS bond fund). If its 1‑yr trend is up, go Offensive; if not, hold BIL. Offensive = equally own the 4 strongest among US/global stocks, Treasuries, commodities, real estate, or BIL by 1‑yr to 1‑mo trend.
Out-of-sample edge: lower drawdown (12.8% vs ~18.8% for the S&P) and stronger risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ~1.18, Calmar ~1.25), with positive alpha, delivering steadier, potentially smoother long-term growth than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 | -0.31 | 0.02 | -0.14 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 583.64% | 14.29% | -5.67% | -5.04% | 0.88 | |
| 26,445.6% | 47.39% | -3.24% | 3.97% | 1.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,654,560.26Regulatory Fees
$5,875.33
Total Slippage
$38,819.24
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 6, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, dual momentum, trend following, crash protection, volatility hedge (uvxy), canary (tip), multi-asset, daily rebalance, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks