Foreign Markets
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, 25% foreign-equities sleeve uses RSI-based regime switching (Bull: tilt to EDC or EDZ via SHY/USRT/IEF/DIA checks; Bear: if EEM is oversold, pick among ISCB/IWM or IGIB/DLN with EDC/EDZ tilts; otherwise EDZ).
- The strategy reserves 25% of the portfolio for a Foreign Markets sleeve and rebalances that sleeve daily.
- It first tries to determine the market regime: Bull or Bear for foreign equities.
- Bull regime (optimistic for foreign stocks): the model checks momentum relationships among US fixed income and real estate proxies (SHY, USRT) and among core equity proxies (IEF, DIA). If the momentum conditions favor a bullish tilt, it allocates the foreign sleeve to EDC (a bullish foreign-exposure vehicle) with a strong weight (roughly 90% of that sleeve). If the conditions don’t favor EDC, it switches to EDZ (the hedged/defensive tilt) instead, still within the Bull path. There is a parallel check using IEF vs. DIA that can also push the tilt toward EDC or EDZ. In short, Bull = tilt toward EDC when momentum signals are positive; otherwise tilt toward EDZ as a hedge.
- Bear regime (risk-off for foreign stocks): the model looks at EEM’s momentum to decide if conditions are effectively underscored (RSI below 30 suggests oversold risk). If Bear conditions trigger, the strategy considers two defensive mini-buckets (ISCB/IWM and IGIB/DLN). Each mini-bucket uses RSI comparisons (e.g., RSI(ISCB) vs RSI(IWM), RSI(IGIB) vs RSI(DLN)) to decide whether to place the foreign sleeve into EDC or EDZ. If those conditions don’t align, EDZ is used. The result is a risk-off tilt using the same two instruments, with a heavy emphasis on protecting capital during bear signals.
- The rest of the portfolio remains in cash or cash-like reserves, ensuring a defined minimum cash buffer.
- The overall approach is a momentum-driven regime-switching framework designed to adapt to changing market conditions while maintaining a fixed foreign-equities allocation.
Out-of-sample, this strategy shows higher risk-adjusted gains vs the S&P 500 (Sharpe ~1.31 vs ~0.98), with lower beta and strong diversification from a 25% foreign sleeve and hedges, offering upside potential and solid risk controls.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 8, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Foreign equities, regime switching, rsi momentum, etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
DLN
WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap Dividend Fund
Stocks
EDC
Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
EDZ
Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IGIB
iShares Trust iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
ISCB
iShares Morningstar Small-Cap ETF
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks