A rule-based, signal-driven strategy that protects against volatility shocks with SHY, then tilts to USD trend-driven EM bets (or their bear/USD alternatives) based on short-term momentum and a USD trend filter.

Front-line idea: a rule-based, signal-driven system that switches between a safety hedge and directional bets on USD/EM based on volatility and USD momentum. Step-by-step: - Step 1: Is market volatility high? Check VIXY using a long (97-day) RSI. If RSI > 54, go to Crash Protection: allocate 100% to SHY (short-term Treasuries). - Step 2: If volatility is not high, assess USD trend with UUP using a 15-day vs 200-day EMA crossover. - If USD is weakening (15-day EMA < 200-day EMA): select one of four levered EM bull ETFs (EDC, KORU, INDL, BRZU) by ranking them with a 5-day RSI and choosing the bottom asset to hold. - If USD is strengthening (15-day EMA >= 200-day EMA): select between EDZ (bear EM) and USDU (USD bull) using the same 5-day RSI ranking and hold the bottom asset. - In each branch, only one asset is held at a time (weights are effectively 100% to that asset). - Rebalancing occurs only when signals flip; there is no constant rebalancing. - The backtest starts 2013-12-31. - Tickers covered: SHY (cash-like hedge), EDC/KORU/INDL/BRZU (levered EM bets), EDZ/USDU (bear EM and USD bull), UUP (USD trend proxy), VIXY (volatility proxy).

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