Backtest - Sector Reversion & Beta Flipping (Quarterly)
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
Quarterly 401(k) rotation: buy recently beaten‑down sectors (U.S. and global) and Treasuries, add diversifiers (gold, commodities, managed futures via DBMF/KMLM), and use a small trend‑driven sleeve that toggles leverage (UPRO) or defense (VEU/bonds).
Every quarter it splits your money into sleeves:
1) Buy the sectors that fell the most recently (U.S. and global) and sometimes Treasuries, aiming for a bounce.
2) Hold diversifiers: gold, broad commodities, and managed‑futures funds (DBMF, KMLM) that often move differently than stocks.
3) Add a trend/leveraged sleeve: if the market’s short‑term trend is above its long‑term trend, use a 3x S&P 500 fund (UPRO); otherwise use broad international stocks (VEU). A small rotor flips between defensive bonds/market‑neutral and leveraged tech/healthcare, favoring what just lagged.
Rebalances quarterly.
Out-of-sample: ~12% annualized return with Sharpe 0.64 and Calmar 0.52, plus crisis hedges (gold, managed futures) and quarterly mean-reversion/leverage that diversifies and cushions the S&P 500 in volatility.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 403.79% | 14.03% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.85 | |
| 960.11% | 21.13% | 3.23% | 2.96% | 1.31 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$106,010.52Regulatory Fees
$30.97
Total Slippage
$197.35
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 28, 2024
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Sector rotation, mean reversion, trend, leverage, managed futures, treasuries, commodities, gold, global equities
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 34 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
EDV
Vanguard World Funds Extended Duration ETF
Stocks
EXI
iShares Global Industrials ETF
Stocks
FMF
First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy ETF
Stocks
IXG
iShares Global Financials ETF
Stocks