-watch- [STRATGPT] Rank #1 | Bond Triggered ETF Strategy with Inverse bond and index ETFs V2 | Deez | 23JUL2023
Today’s Change (Aug 7, 2026)
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About
A rules-based ETF mix that uses bond strength as a traffic light. It usually holds major stock ETFs, flips to their inverse when those look overheated, and parks in bonds when bonds are deeply weak. One sleeve uses a 3x inverse semiconductor fund.
The portfolio is split into 4 parts. Each part watches a bond fund’s short‑term strength gauge (RSI: 0–100; >50 = rising, <40–45 = falling). If that bond looks firm (>50), it holds a matching stock fund (SPY, QQQ, IWM, SOXX) unless that stock is overheated (>70), then it flips to the inverse (SH, PSQ, RWM, SOXS). If the bond is very weak, it parks in that bond fund. Note: SOXS is a very volatile 3x inverse fund.
Out-of-sample, this rules-based ETF strategy offers higher upside with disciplined risk: 27.7% annualized return vs 20.5% S&P, positive alpha and Calmar ~1.05. Drawdowns are larger (26.5% vs 18.8%), but bond regimes and sleeves boost risk-adjusted performance.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.9 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 792.12% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 5% | 0.87 | |
| 2,285.4% | 21.37% | -5.83% | 6.84% | 1.12 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$238,539.85Regulatory Fees
$660.01
Total Slippage
$5,705.96
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 23, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 1.62%
Type
Stocks
Category
Rules-based etf rotation, tactical asset allocation, inverse etfs, bonds as risk trigger, momentum + mean reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
RWM
ProShares Short Russell2000
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks