A simple market-timing strategy for TQQQ: buy after sharp drops or during healthy trends, but move to SHV (short-term Treasuries) when TQQQ looks overheated or clearly weak.

Each day, the strategy looks only at TQQQ, a very aggressive fund that tries to deliver 3x the daily move of the Nasdaq-100 (big tech-heavy stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia). It first checks whether TQQQ has fallen very hard recently using RSI, a 0–100 “heat gauge” of recent price movement. If RSI is below 30, it buys TQQQ, assuming the drop may be overdone. If RSI is above 80, meaning TQQQ has run up very sharply and may be overheated, it moves into SHV, a very low-risk short-term U.S. Treasury fund. If RSI is in the middle, it checks trend: if TQQQ is above its 200-day average price, it holds TQQQ. If not, and TQQQ is also below its 20-day average, it hides in SHV; otherwise it stays in TQQQ.

Out-of-sample, this TQQQ timing strategy targets ~49% annualized gains vs SPY ~16.7%, with Calmar ~1.24 and Sharpe ~0.97. It uses RSI/trend guards plus SHV hedges for upside capture with risk controls—though it carries higher drawdown (~39% vs ~19%).