A macro strategy that reads short- and long-term Treasury trends to guess the market environment, then shifts between safe assets, growth sectors, and hedges based on risk signals from stocks, junk bonds, and oil.

This strategy uses the bond market as an economic “weather report.” It watches short-term Treasury bonds (SHY) and long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) to judge whether investors expect slower growth, lower rates, higher inflation, or more risk-taking. From there, it rotates among groups like long-term bonds, gold, inflation-protected bonds, tech stocks, semiconductor stocks, real estate, and some funds that rise when markets, oil, foreign currencies, or certain sectors fall. It also checks whether defensive areas like utilities or low-volatility stocks are beating the broad market, plus whether junk bonds are under stress. Those act like warning lights that push it toward safer or more hedged positions.

Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted return and far smaller drawdowns vs the S&P 500. Sharpe 1.35 vs 0.98, Calmar 2.09, max drawdown 7.3% vs 18.8%; ~15.3% annual return vs 15.9%, with beta ~0.25.