A monthly, regime-switching momentum strategy that holds one asset. In strong markets it picks the top RSI asset from four growth/defense groups (weighted by inverse volatility). In weak markets it shifts to a defensive set of low-volatility and dividend-focused assets, using a shorter RSI lookback, and again selects the top performer. The result is dynamic, single-asset exposure aimed at capturing upside while reducing risk in downturns.

- The system looks at the broad market (XLG) and asks: is the price above its 163-day average? If yes, it proceeds with an aggressive, momentum-driven pick; if no, it switches to a defensive, low-risk set of assets. - In up-market mode, it considers four groups of assets: 1) Growth tech stocks: NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, MU 2) Growth-oriented ETFs: SPYG, VONG, QQQM, ATFV 3) Broad-market exposures: XLG, OEF, VOO, VONE 4) Defense/industrial names: NOC, BA, LMT, RTX - Within each group, assets are weighted by inverse volatility (less volatile assets get more weight). For each asset, a momentum measure called RSI is calculated over a 21-day window. The groups are then scanned and the single asset with the strongest RSI (top across all groups) is chosen to hold. - In down/unclear markets, it switches to a defensive set of assets across four groups: 1) Low-volatility funds: SPLV, USMV, SELV, LGLV 2) Utilities: DUK, NEE, SO, PCG 3) Consumer staples: WMT, MCD, PEP, PG 4) Dividend/quality ETFs: QDEF, FDVV, CGDV, SPYD - Within these groups, assets are treated more evenly (cash-equal weighting per group). RSI is still used as a momentum filter but over a shorter 10-day window. The top asset across all groups is selected to hold. - Rebalance happens monthly, and the strategy ends up holding a single asset at a time rather than a basket. The approach combines trend-following discipline with a momentum screen and volatility control to balance upside capture with risk control.

Out-of-sample, this regime-switching momentum strategy posts superior risk-adjusted gains vs the S&P: oos return ~80%, Sharpe ~3.28, Calmar ~17.6, max drawdown ~4.6%. In downturns it shifts to defensive assets to preserve upside with low risk.