Wooden ARKK Machine 2.2
Today’s Change (Jan 20, 2026)
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About
Daily, it gauges fear vs greed by comparing a safe bond fund (IEI) to high‑beta stocks (SPHB). Then it buys one ETF that fell the most recently—either a leveraged bull fund if bonds lead, or an inverse fund otherwise. ~90% invested, ~10% cash.
Each day it compares a safer bond fund (IEI) with a high‑volatility stock fund (SPHB) using a simple 0–100 recent‑move score. If bonds look stronger, it buys the biggest 4‑day dip from bull ETFs: TARK 2x ARKK, TECL 3x tech, UPRO 3x S&P, TMF 3x long US Treas, SOXX semis. Otherwise it buys the biggest dip from inverse ETFs: SARK short ARKK, PSQ short Nasdaq‑100, TMV short long Treas, DRV short real estate. ~90% in that ETF; ~10% in cash.
Out-of-sample edge: ~96% annual return vs ~22% S&P; Sharpe ~1.46, Calmar ~2.25. Drawdowns may be large (~43%), but regime-filtered dip-buying in a single levered/inverse ETF targets outsized upside beyond the S&P for risk-tolerant investors.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | 0.72 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.21% | 16.81% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.98 | |
| 15,302.28% | 292.68% | -8.19% | -0.26% | 2.43 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,540,228.31Regulatory Fees
$8,324.21
Total Slippage
$51,924.81
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 23, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, mean reversion, regime filter, daily rebalance, single-position, inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DRV
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
EDC
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares, Shares of beneficial interest, no par value
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
SARK
Investment Managers Series Trust II Tradr 1X Short Innovation Daily ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPHB
Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF
Stocks
TARK
Investment Managers Series Trust II Tradr 2X Long Innovation ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks