Wooden ARKK Machine 2.2
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily momentum-based tilt: if bonds show stronger short-term momentum than high-beta stocks, go long one top-ranked leveraged ETF; otherwise, lean heavily into one inverse/bear ETF to hedge.
- Every day, the strategy decides between two moods: risk-on (buy a leveraged tech/growth/EM asset) or risk-off (buy a bear/inverse asset).
- It uses a simple momentum check: compare the short-term momentum of a short-term treasury ETF (IEI) with the momentum of a high-beta equity ETF (SPHB) using a 7-day lookback. If IEI’s momentum is stronger (IEI RSI > SPHB RSI), the system goes into the long mood; otherwise it goes into the hedging mood.
- Long mood: from a pool of seven long ETFs (TARK, TECL, UPRO, TMF, YINN, EDC, SOXX), it ranks them by how they’ve done recently (using a moving-average return over a 4-day window) within a 15-day lookback, and buys a single instrument with full allocation (100%).
- Short mood: from a pool of five inverse/bear ETFs (SARK, PSQ, TMV, DRV, TYO), it ranks them the same way and buys a single instrument with 90% of the allocation.
- Rebalancing happens daily, so the chosen instrument can change each day based on the latest ranking and signal.
- The setup uses leverage-heavy vehicles, so results depend on precise timing and can be volatile. The plan intends to overweight cash only in a way implied by the 90/100 weight in the short leg and the 100/100 weight in the long leg, but overall it remains a highly directional, single-asset-at-a-time approach.
Out-of-sample momentum strategy aiming to beat the S&P on a risk-adjusted basis. Sharpe ~1.52 vs SPY ~1.41, Calmar ~2.40, and ~103% annualized return, with higher drawdowns (~43%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71.87% | 15.14% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.91 | |
| 18,669.52% | 290.71% | 2.13% | 19.85% | 2.42 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,876,951.62Regulatory Fees
$9,552.23
Total Slippage
$59,671.16
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 23, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, momentum, trend-following, risk-on/risk-off, long/short, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 0 assets in total
Ticker
Type