Which Way Is Up? Trading 1.2
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rules‑based switch that first checks bonds. If bonds are weak, it holds one defensive trade (short stocks or long USD). If bonds are fine, it uses volatility and S&P 500 trend/“heat” to choose long volatility, a leveraged stock index bull, or a defensive mix with Treasuries.
Step 1 (regime): If bonds (BND) are below their 200‑day trend, buy ONE defensive play—the calmest by 14‑day RSI (a 0–100 “heat” gauge): short stocks (SPXS/SQQQ/DWSH) or long USD (UUP).
Else, if VIX (via VIXY) is “hot” (RSI>70), buy a volatility fund (UVXY/VIXM).
Else, if SPY is above its 200‑day, buy a leveraged stock bull (SPXL or TQQQ) unless SPY is overheated (RSI>70), then hold volatility.
If SPY is below its 200‑day, pair one sector bull (WANT/DRN/UTSL, each only if its sector is trending up; else SSO) with long Treasuries (TLT). Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~54% annualized returns versus ~19% for the S&P, with solid Calmar (~1.01) and Sharpe (~1.03), plus regime-driven hedges. It seeks higher upside with disciplined risk management, unlike a simple buy-and-hold.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | -0.18 | 0 | -0.05 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203.54% | 16.64% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.88 | |
| 272,729.04% | 199.41% | -21.48% | -20.63% | 1.99 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$27,282,903.76Regulatory Fees
$101,062.85
Total Slippage
$712,582.31
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical allocation, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, volatility, treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DRN
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DWSH
AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF
Stocks
PSR
Invesco Active U.S. Real Estate Fund
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks