Which Way Is Up? Trading 1.2
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rule-based, risk‑on/risk‑off strategy. It uses long‑term trend and a “how hot is it?” check to rotate among volatility trades, leveraged stock funds, defensive sectors/Treasuries, or hedges, always picking the option that looks least overheated.
Daily, it checks two things: long‑term trend (price vs 200‑day average) and recent heat (14‑day RSI).
- If fear (VIXY) is very hot, it buys a volatility ETF (VIXM/UVXY), picking the one that’s less “hot.”
- If stocks trend up and aren’t overheated, it buys SPXL or TQQQ (whichever looks cooler). If overheated, it shifts to volatility.
- If stocks trend down, it picks one “defensive” (utilities/REITs/SSO) or TLT, whichever looks cooler.
- A small sleeve uses bonds (if trending up) or a single hedge (DWSH/UUP/SQQQ/SPXS) when bonds aren’t.
Out-of-sample, this rule-based strategy aims to beat the S&P by riding trends and hedges. It delivered ~54% annualized return vs ~19% for SPY, with Calmar ~1.01 and Sharpe ~1.03, via volatility, leverage, and defensives. Be mindful of larger drawdowns in stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | -0.18 | 0 | -0.06 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 210.03% | 17.07% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.9 | |
| 352,590.48% | 212.01% | -1.37% | -8.68% | 2.06 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$35,269,047.85Regulatory Fees
$99,323.50
Total Slippage
$700,189.86
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 3, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, momentum (rsi), volatility hedging, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 19 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DRN
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
DWSH
AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF
Stocks
PSR
Invesco Active U.S. Real Estate Fund
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks