Which way is up? -Krazie 20240217
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rule-based tactical allocator that picks one instrument from volatility hedges, leveraged and unlevered equities, and bonds/treasuries using 14-day momentum and 200-day trend checks. It favors the asset with the strongest, least-extreme momentum and allocates ~90% to that pick with a ~10% cash cushion, rebalancing each day to ride regime shifts.
- The strategy runs every trading day and looks at a 14-day window for momentum signals, plus a long-term trend check using a 200-day moving average.
- It treats SPY as a proxy for the broad market’s trend and uses its price relative to the 200-day average to gauge whether markets are in an uptrend.
- It also monitors volatility proxies (VIXM and VIXY) and momentum signals to decide whether risk is rising or falling.
- Across several asset groups (volatility hedges, leveraged equities, regular equities, and bonds/long-duration Treasuries), it ranks assets by a momentum rule (based on RSI with a 14-day lookback) and selects the one with the least extreme momentum (the “bottom” RSI) to own.
- When it chooses an asset, it assigns about 90% of available capital to that instrument and keeps roughly 10% in cash or unallocated buffer, then reweights daily.
- The vote-structure includes conditional branches that spread decisions across assets like SPY, SPXL, TQQQ (levered bulls on SPY/QQQ), QQQ, SPY, BND, TMF/TMV, and the VIX ETFs. The intent is to ride uptrends with leverage when the market breadth and momentum look favorable, but to hedge or shift into bonds/treasuries or volatility when volatility and risk signals deteriorate.
- Overall, it is a dynamic, single-instrument-at-a-time tactical strategy designed to capture regime shifts rather than maintain a fixed allocation.
Out-of-sample edge: ~46.8% annualized return vs SPY ~20.6%, Calmar ~0.97, Sharpe ~0.99. Daily picks across levered equities, volatility hedges, and bonds with ~10% cash. Drawdowns may be larger, but upside far exceeds the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 578.87% | 13.51% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 341,379.82% | 71.33% | -16.46% | -15.56% | 1.35 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$34,147,982.39Regulatory Fees
$112,134.48
Total Slippage
$792,489.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 17, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, tactical allocation, trend-following, volatility hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks