A daily, rule-based bear-market picker that uses two momentum branches to select the best inverse ETFs (e.g., SQQQ, SPXS, LABD, TMV, SPDN) based on RSI, volatility, and max drawdown. It aims to profit from downturns while managing risk, using a primarily single-asset hold (with occasional cash-like fallbacks).

- What it is: a daily-tuned, rule-based portfolio that aims to profit from or protect against market downturns by holding one or more inverse/ bear ETFs. It also includes a cash-like option and bond-bear assets to hedge. - The big idea: use momentum signals to decide when to go bear/ inverse and which bear ETF to own, then pick the best option based on volatility and maximum expected loss (drawdown) over recent history. - How it decides which branch to use: it compares the 8-day momentum of IEF (a government bond fund) with the 45-day momentum of PSQ (an inverse Nasdaq ETF). If IEF’s momentum is weaker (lower RSI) than PSQ’s momentum, it enters the “crazy inversed” path; otherwise it uses the “Inverse Bio and Bonds with Inverted Pops” path. - Within each branch: 1) Build a universe of inverse/bear assets (e.g., SQQQ, SPXS, SPDN, FAZ, SMN, LABD, TMV, ERY, etc.). 2) Screen by recent volatility (lower is preferred) using a short window (roughly 14 days) and pick the bottom candidates. 3) Among those, evaluate downside risk (max drawdown over about an 11-day window) and pick the one(s) with the smallest risk. 4) Allocate 100% to the top pick (or the top two in some steps) and rebalance daily. - Special notes: some branches borrow ideas from “inverted pops” relationships (e.g., TMV vs LABD vs SQQQ vs ERY) to diversify when signals align, and may dip into BIL as a cash substitute if risk is judged too high. - What you end up owning most days: a single inverse ETF (or sometimes a pair) meant to gain when stocks fall or when risk is rising, with a fallback to very short-term Treasuries or cash in other cases. - Risks: levered/inverse ETFs can behave unpredictably in non-down markets; daily rebalancing can erode long-term performance; the logic relies on historical windows that may not hold in future regimes.

Out-of-sample, this bear-ETF strategy shows higher risk-adjusted returns than the S&P: ~29% annualized vs ~18%, Sharpe ~1.21 vs ~1.10, negative beta, and positive alpha, plus diversification and downturn upside—though drawdowns can rise in strong uptrends.