What the Hell did I make: Inverse- Pop or Invest|8d IEF RSI vs 45d PSQ RSI
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, contrarian, inverse‑ETF strategy. A bond‑vs‑Nasdaq test flips between aggressive shorts and patience. It buys leveraged bearish funds (tech, energy, biotech, bonds) only after sharp pops; otherwise it holds T‑bills.
Each day it checks “heat” scores (RSI: 0–100; low = very beaten down). It compares bonds (IEF, 8‑day RSI) to a Nasdaq‑bear fund (PSQ, 45‑day RSI). If bonds look weaker, it picks one bearish ETF (tech, energy, S&P, bonds) using drawdown/volatility. Otherwise it waits for big pops: it buys a bearish ETF only when its RSI is very low; if not, it parks in T‑bills (BIL). KMLM is a trend gauge for biotech/bond shorts.
Out-of-sample edge: ~29% annualized return vs ~18% for the S&P, Sharpe ~1.21 vs ~1.10, negative beta (~-0.30) for market hedging, Calmar ~1.06. Drawdowns can be larger in downturns, but risk-adjusted upside is compelling.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 | -0.98 | 0.21 | -0.46 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.35% | 12.89% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.8 | |
| 1,831.29% | 78.88% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 1.8 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$193,128.62Regulatory Fees
$906.25
Total Slippage
$5,797.78
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 21, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Inverse etfs, mean reversion, rsi, risk-on/off, leveraged, daily rebalance, volatility filter
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
ERY
Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X ETF
Stocks
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
SMN
ProShares UltraShort Materials
Stocks
SPDN
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF
Stocks
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x ETF
Stocks