What the Hell did I make: Inverse- Pop or Invest|8d IEF RSI vs 45d PSQ RSI
Today’s Change (Dec 15, 2025)
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About
A daily, tactical “dip‑buy the bear” system. If bonds look weak versus short‑Nasdaq momentum, it hunts short‑term pops in inverse (often leveraged) ETFs across tech, S&P, energy, financials, materials, biotech, and long bonds; otherwise it parks in T‑bills. Very aggressive.
- First, it compares recent-move scores (RSI, 0–100) of IEF (7–10Y Treasuries) vs PSQ (−1x Nasdaq). If bonds look weaker, it turns on the bearish playbook.
- Then it picks a calmer basket of inverse funds (tech, S&P 500, financials, energy, materials, biotech, long bonds) and buys the most “washed‑out” choices. If they aren’t washed‑out enough, it holds BIL (T‑bills).
- KMLM (a trend‑following ETF) is used as a tie‑breaker in a few checks.
- Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample performance beats the S&P with higher risk-adjusted returns: 30.82% annualized vs 18.13%, Sharpe ~1.27 vs 1.06, and Calmar ~1.13, plus a modest negative beta to stocks. Diversified upside from tactical inverse plays.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.82 | -0.98 | 0.21 | -0.46 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.82% | 13.91% | -0.24% | 3.99% | 0.84 | |
| 1,818.79% | 84.09% | 0.51% | -6.74% | 1.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$191,879.34Regulatory Fees
$765.01
Total Slippage
$4,951.98
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 21, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, daily rebalancing, inverse/short etfs, leveraged etfs, rsi momentum, volatility filter, drawdown filter, market timing, risk-on/off, sector rotation, bonds
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
ERY
Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares
Stocks
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
SMN
ProShares UltraShort Materials
Stocks
SPDN
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares
Stocks
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares
Stocks