A mechanical, daily-rebalanced rotation that selects 1–2 of five ETFs (TMF, UUP, USO, XLP, XLV) based on short-term momentum (RSI signals and 3-day performance) and allocates 50% to each chosen asset. It uses volatility and multiple RSI checks to guide risk and regime shifts.

What it tries to do: switch into assets that are showing the strongest short-term momentum, but only when market momentum signals look favorable. How it decides in simple terms: - It watches broad market momentum signals (using RSI) on proxies like QQQ (tech-heavy NASDAQ), SPY (S&P 500), and VTV (value-focused). RSI is a gauge of how fast prices have moved recently; when the reading is very high (above about 80), the strategy treats that as a sign of an overextended rally and looks for opportunities among a small list of ETFs. - From the candidate list of five ETFs (TMF, UUP, USO, XLP, XLV), it ranks them by how much they have risen recently (its short, 3-day moving-average performance). The top one, or the top two if the rule says so, gets the allocation. Each chosen ETF gets 50% of the equity portion; if two are chosen, each gets 50% (summing to 100% of the equity sleeve). - There are several nested branches so that if different RSI signals are triggered (for QQQ, SPY, or VTV) the same top-two-asset logic can apply, always with a 3-day momentum lookback and a 50% allocation per asset. - A volatility check using VIXY (a volatility/“fear” proxy) looks at the 5-day cumulative move to avoid taking on risk when volatility is spiking (the exact threshold in the rules is a 15% level). If volatility is too high, the path may change to a more conservative allocation. - The plan rebalances daily, and the system is built as a series of if-else blocks so it can pick the top assets under several market regimes. The assets chosen cover bonds (levered), USD strength, oil, and two defensive sectors (consumer staples and healthcare). - The framework includes backtested-looking visuals (sparkgraph URL) indicating it’s intended to be evaluated with historical performance, not just theory.Important notes for a layman: RSI tells you if a move is very strong recently; a high RSI is a cue to consider rotating into assets that have shown momentum, while a volatility signal helps avoid buying when fear is spiking. Leveraged ETFs like TMF magnify moves (both up and down) and can lead to larger gains or larger losses in short periods. The strategy is heavily rule-based and short-term in focus, and it relies on a small set of macro proxies rather than a long list of individual stocks.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.42 vs SPY 0.87, alpha +0.61, Calmar 2.99, and ~112% annualized return vs ~16%. Momentum-driven macro-rotation offers stronger risk-adjusted upside, with caveat of larger drawdowns in stressed markets.