What is overfit? 0.0.0.1
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A high-risk, all-or-nothing rule: if any major market proxy’s 10-day RSI climbs above 79, move 100% into UVXY; otherwise stay in cash. It uses a long chain of momentum tests across several tickers, plus guardrails, to time volatility rather than diversify across assets.
- Start with 100% cash by default.
- For each of several market proxies (QQQE, VTV, VOX, TECL, VOOG, VOOV, XLP, QQQ, SPY-related, etc.), compute a 10-day RSI.
- If RSI on any proxy is greater than 79, immediately allocate 100% to UVXY (the volatility ETF).
- If that RSI condition isn’t met for any proxy, stay in cash.
- There are additional nested checks that reference conditions on QQQ and TQQQ and moving averages, but the practical effect is to avoid/modify exposure when those extra signals aren’t favorable.
- Rebalancing is set to none; changes occur only when a signal fires (or doesn’t).
- The strategy uses UVXY as the sole trigger asset to capture spikes in volatility; otherwise it keeps money in cash (no broad stock exposure).
- Because UVXY is a futures-based volatility product, this approach is intended for very short horizons and can suffer from decay if held too long.
Out-of-sample edge: ~120% annualized return, Sharpe 1.50, Calmar 2.32, max drawdown 52%. Default cash, 100% UVXY on extreme momentum signals. Higher upside vs SPY with stronger risk-adjusted performance, albeit bigger drawdowns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 8, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility, momentum, rule-based, quantitative, high-risk, single-asset-uvxy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
Stocks