A rule-based, multi-asset rotation system that shifts between risk-on equity bets (often leveraged) and risk-off hedges (bonds, gold, cash/dollar) based on momentum and trend signals across many market scenarios. It uses canaries like XLK vs XLU, RSI thresholds, and moving-average tests to decide which assets to own and keeps turnover low through a narrow rebalance band.

Plain-language explanation of how the strategy operates: - Core idea: The model maintains a basket of assets and continuously re-allocates exposure to stay aligned with the prevailing market regime (risk-on vs risk-off). It does not rely on a single indicator; instead it uses multiple “canaries” (sub-strategies) that test different signals and thresholds to decide which assets to own. - How it signals risk-on vs risk-off: Several canaries compare performance and indicators across groups. A common theme is to contrast technology/stock leadership with defensive sectors and fixed income. If growth-oriented signals win (for example, tech leadership or broad equity momentum), the system allocates to risk-on assets (e.g., leveraged equity ETFs like SPXL, TQQQ, UDOW) and may reduce cash reserves. If defensive signals win (for example, bonds, gold, or cash-like assets outperform), it shifts toward risk-off assets (e.g., BND/SHY/SHV bond funds, GLD for gold, UUP for dollar strength, US Treasuries proxies). - How the selection works in practice: • Canary groups compare performance between sectors and asset classes (e.g., XLK vs XLU; tech leadership vs utilities) over defined windows (126 days, etc.). If the signal favors tech, a risk-on posture is favored; if not, the system leans defensive. • RSI- and momentum-based canaries: Some branches use momentum measures (like RSI, moving-average momentum) to time entries into risk-on assets and to trigger protective moves when momentum becomes extreme or reverses. • Momentum screens among equities with leverage: In risk-on modes, the model often selects a small number of top-leveraged equity ETFs (e.g., SPXL, TQQQ, UDOW) based on short-window performance or momentum rules. • Risk-off/balance layers: When risk-off is favored, the system rotates into a mix of bonds (e.g., TMF, TMV, BND, SHY, SHV), gold (GLD), and other hedges (e.g., UUP for dollar exposure, BTAL as an anti-beta hedge, USDU for dollar strength). • The SPY/M.A. and trend ladders: Separate blocks repeatedly test whether the SPY (S&P 500) or broader market has upside momentum relative to its moving averages (e.g., 50/200 day tests) and then choose top components for the “risk-on” basket or protect with the “risk-off” basket. • Rebalance behavior: The rules emphasize stability and low turnover by using a narrow rebalance corridor (rebalance width around 0.01). In practice this means the portfolio won’t flip aggressively every day; adjustments occur when signals are clearly aligned with a regime change. - What this means for a layperson: The strategy is like a coach constantly picking from a wide menu of bets (tech stocks, broad market bets, bonds, gold, currency bets, oil, etc.) based on a long checklist of signals. When the signals say “markets look strong,” the coach stacks the deck with higher-growth bets (often using leverage for amplified moves). When signals say “risk,” the coach switches to safer bets like bonds and cash proxies to dampen loss. The goal is to grow in up markets while protecting capital in down markets, not to predict every tick but to ride the overall trend while hedging. - Notes on complexity and interpretation: This is not a single indicator system. It combines trend signals, momentum momentum (including RSI), cross-asset comparisons, and several market scenarios (e.g., different canaries for rally conditions vs. caution signals). The exact asset weights shift with the regime, but the overarching philosophy is “rotate toward what’s working now and hedge when it isn’t.” - Important caveats for a layperson: The strategy uses many ETFs, including some that are not popular with beginners (e.g., leveraged and inverse ETFs like SPXL, TQQQ, UVXY, TMF, TMV, BTAL, USDU). Leveraged and inverse products are designed for short-term trading and can magnify losses as well as gains. This strategy’s frequent regime-switching logic can produce variable drawdowns and turnover. It is best understood as a tactical, trend-following framework rather than a simple buy-and-hold plan. Rebalancing is intentionally limited to avoid excessive trading costs and tax events, but that also means it may lag during rapid regime shifts. The system assumes access to a wide set of ETFs and does not attempt to explain every ETF’s underlying mechanics, so having a basic awareness of what these building blocks represent (tech, bonds, gold, dollar, oil, etc.) helps in understanding the rationale behind the rotations.

Adaptive multi-asset rotation that seeks upside while hedging risk. Out-of-sample: drawdown 12.1% vs 18.8% SPY, beta ~0.43, Sharpe ~1.11 vs ~1.21, Calmar ~0.95. Lower drawdowns with solid risk-adjusted returns versus the S&P.