Volatility Index Black Swan Catcher W/TINA (Only meant for bear market)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A bear‑market, crash‑catching system. It watches fear (VIXM) and short‑term “hot/cold” signals. When overheated, it hedges with UVXY; when washed out, it buys 2x/3x bounce plays; otherwise it toggles among QQQ, defensive staples, a mild short (PSQ), or cash‑like T‑bills (BIL).
First check fear (VIXM). If its 10‑day “heat” (RSI) is >70, treat it like crash mode. Then 3 mini‑bots (S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100, Semis) act:
- If their leveraged cousin looks too hot (RSI>~80), buy UVXY (volatility spike hedge).
- If too cold (RSI<~30), buy a 2x/3x bull ETF for a bounce.
- Otherwise use TINA rules: If QQQ above its 20‑day average, either fade a >5.5% 10‑day surge with PSQ or own the stronger of QQQ/XLP. If below the average, buy TECL only if very oversold, else sit in BIL.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return ~31% vs ~21% for the S&P, and drawdown ~16% vs ~19% for SPY. Calmar ~1.9 with beta ~0.9 — bigger upside with less downside in bear markets than the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 30, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Bear-market,tactical,volatility-hedge,leveraged etfs,trend-following,mean-reversion,risk-on/risk-off,short-term swing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
Stocks