Volatility Index Black Swan Catcher
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Daily crash‑catcher for tech/semis. Uses a temperature gauge (RSI) and volatility to flip between 3x long, 3x short, cash‑like T‑Bills, or a bonds/volatility basket. Includes a Double‑Pop dip‑buy/overheat‑hedge. Very aggressive; expect big swings.
It watches market fear (VIXM). If fear spikes, it shifts to crash‑mode.
Then it checks QQQ and semiconductors (SMH) “temperature” (RSI = a quick score of how hot/cold recent moves are) over 10/20/30 days: hot → 3x inverse (SQQQ/SOXS), cold → 3x long (TQQQ/SOXL), in‑between → T‑Bills (BIL) or a bonds/volatility mix.
If no spike and stocks look firm, a Double‑Pop module buys 3x tech/semis after sharp drops, but hedges with VIX (UVIX) or inverse tech when rallies run hot. Bond checks (BND vs SPY; IEF vs TLT) guide when to prefer the bonds/vol basket. Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample, this crash-catcher targets tech leadership with Sharpe ~1.35 vs SPY ~1.34, ~67.9% vs 21.3%, and Calmar ~1.48. Higher upside with hedged risk controls; riskier drawdowns but potentially superior risk-adjusted returns vs the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 | 1.58 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.12% | 11.59% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.71 | |
| 1,053.62% | 85.89% | -9.48% | -3.15% | 1.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$115,362.18Regulatory Fees
$409.79
Total Slippage
$2,444.20
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 14, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, momentum, mean-reversion, volatility, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, market timing, bonds, technology, semiconductors
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks