Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT, SSO w/TECL, & UPRO w/ CURE + Fund Surfing - Replace TQQQ w/ TECL
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A two-part strategy: a volatility-based dial that moves from leveraged tech/healthcare in calm markets to SPY and Treasuries in turmoil, plus a small contrarian picker that buys the most “oversold” fund when volatility is low. Rebalanced daily.
It splits the portfolio in two. 1) A “volatility dial” checks how bumpy the S&P 500 has been over ~1 month. If very calm, it buys 3x tech and 3x healthcare; as markets get choppier it steps down to SPY, then mixes in TLT, and in turmoil holds more TLT. 2) When volatility is low, it makes 1–2 short-term “buy the dip” bets in the single most beaten‑down of UPRO, TECL, or SHY (by RSI, a 0–100 stretch score). Otherwise it parks in SHY.
Out-of-sample return ~37% vs ~23% for the S&P 500; a volatility-dial plus contrarian picks target bigger upside with bond shielding in stress. Calmar ~0.85 and Sharpe ~1.03 signal solid risk-adjusted gains, despite higher drawdowns in extreme regimes.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 1.35 | 0.57 | 0.75 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 629.7% | 14.36% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.87 | |
| 10,361.9% | 36.89% | -1.94% | -10.43% | 1.17 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,046,189.94Regulatory Fees
$2,646.49
Total Slippage
$16,481.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, volatility targeting, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, bonds vs equities, rsi contrarian, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total