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Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT, SSO w/TECL, & UPRO w/ CURE + Fund Surfing - Replace TQQQ w/ TECL
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

Daily, two sleeves adjust risk by recent market “bumpiness.” One shifts between SPY, TLT, and in very calm times TECL/CURE. The other either holds SHY or, in calm markets, buys the most “oversold” pick among UPRO, TECL, and SHY.
NutHow it works
Two equal sleeves, rebalanced daily. 1) Volatility sleeve: Looks at how “bumpy” SPY (S&P 500) was over ~1 month. Very calm → split TECL (3x Tech) & CURE (3x Healthcare). Normal → SPY. Higher → add TLT (long US Treasuries) 25%, very high → 50/50 SPY/TLT. 2) Fund‑surfing: If bumpiness is low/moderate, buy the single fund with the lowest 1‑month RSI (an overbought/oversold score) among UPRO (3x S&P), TECL, SHY (short Treasuries). Otherwise hold SHY.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample, this strategy aims for 37% annualized return vs 23% for the S&P, with ~1.04 Sharpe and Calmar ~0.85. It shifts to bonds in volatility spikes to protect capital, though drawdowns can be larger in stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.181.320.570.75
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
599.21%14.41%1.36%5.73%0.86
12,237.3%39.55%2.65%31.58%1.25
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,233,729.63
Regulatory Fees
$2,489.96
Total Slippage
$15,490.95
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical etf rotation, volatility targeting, mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, stock-bond timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 0 assets in total
Ticker
Type

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toCUREandTECL. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 37.11%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 43.63%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, crypto, and options.