Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT, SSO w/TECL, & UPRO w/ CURE + Fund Surfing - Replace TQQQ w/ TECL
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Daily, two sleeves adjust risk by recent market “bumpiness.” One shifts between SPY, TLT, and in very calm times TECL/CURE. The other either holds SHY or, in calm markets, buys the most “oversold” pick among UPRO, TECL, and SHY.
Two equal sleeves, rebalanced daily.
1) Volatility sleeve: Looks at how “bumpy” SPY (S&P 500) was over ~1 month. Very calm → split TECL (3x Tech) & CURE (3x Healthcare). Normal → SPY. Higher → add TLT (long US Treasuries) 25%, very high → 50/50 SPY/TLT.
2) Fund‑surfing: If bumpiness is low/moderate, buy the single fund with the lowest 1‑month RSI (an overbought/oversold score) among UPRO (3x S&P), TECL, SHY (short Treasuries). Otherwise hold SHY.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~37% vs SPY ~23%, with adaptive risk tilts: leverage in calm markets, bond exposure in volatility. Higher upside and regime diversification, but larger drawdowns in stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.17 | 1.34 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 602.05% | 14.19% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 11,277.8% | 38.04% | 1.69% | -7.75% | 1.2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,137,780.33Regulatory Fees
$2,589.04
Total Slippage
$16,097.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical etf rotation, volatility targeting, mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, stock-bond timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total