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Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT, SSO w/TECL, & UPRO w/ CURE + Fund Surfing - Replace TQQQ w/ TECL
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily, volatility- and momentum-driven rotation between equity leverage (TECL/CURE) and bonds (TLT), using RSI and SPY 21-day volatility as signals. It replaces SHY with TLT and UPRO with CURE (and SSO with TECL), favoring longer-duration bonds and sector/levered bets when conditions look favorable, while maintaining an equal-basis, risk-managed stance under higher volatility.
NutHow it works
- It rebalances daily between a cash-like setup and a fund-rotation setup. - In the cash-equal vein, it compares SPY’s 21-day volatility against a threshold; when SPY’s recent volatility is high, it tends to place a balanced, equal-weighted position between a stock ETF (SPY) and a long-bond ETF (TLT). - If SPY’s 21-day volatility is not above the high threshold, the logic shifts to a more nuanced split that can tilt toward SPY with a bond sleeve (TLT) or move into a set of levered/sector ETFs (TECL, CURE) depending on additional tests. - In the Fund Surfing block, it uses a bottom-RSI approach to pick one candidate from a smallGROUP of funds (UPRO, TECL, SHY replaced by TLT in this version). It ranks the candidates by RSI over the last 21 days and selects the one with the lowest RSI (the most “oversold” by that metric) as the single asset to own, subject to a further risk check using SPY’s 21-day volatility. - The strategy substitutes SHY with TLT and UPRO with CURE (and SSO with TECL) as part of the named replacements, signaling a shift toward longer-duration bonds and more sector/leveraged tech exposure. - The overall intent is to capture growth when market conditions are favorable (via TECL/CURE) while using bonds to cushion risk, with a simple, rule-based discipline to avoid overconcentration and to keep the approach transparent.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample annualized return ~36.9% vs SPY ~22.9%, with bond ballast and volatility-driven rotation. Sharpe ~1.03; Calmar ~0.85. A transparent, rule-based strategy aiming for stronger growth with measured risk.

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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-based allocation, leveraged etf rotation, momentum (rsi), bond/equity mix, kelly-inspired sizing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toCURE, TECLandUPRO. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 27.06%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 43.63%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.