Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT, SSO w/TECL, & UPRO w/ CURE + Fund Surfing - Replace TQQQ w/ TECL
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily strategy that gets aggressive when the market is calm, turns defensive when it gets turbulent, and uses both leveraged stock funds and Treasury bonds.
This strategy checks how jumpy the U.S. stock market has been over the last month, using SPY (a fund that tracks the S&P 500).
If markets are calm, it leans into aggressive funds tied to technology and healthcare. If markets get shakier, it shifts toward the broad stock market, then mixes in Treasury bonds, and in very rough periods it can move fully into long-term Treasury bonds.
A second part of the strategy also buys whichever of three choices has been the weakest lately—S&P 500, tech, or short-term Treasuries—but only when volatility is low enough. Otherwise it hides in short-term Treasuries.
Offers higher long-run upside than the S&P by tactically leveraging tech/healthcare in calm markets and moving into bonds when volatility rises. Out-of-sample: ~27% annualized return vs ~20.6% for the S&P, with volatility-aware risk controls.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 1.38 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 691.91% | 14.42% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.88 | |
| 12,584.15% | 37.06% | -12.4% | -7.36% | 1.16 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,268,414.66Regulatory Fees
$2,394.84
Total Slippage
$18,639.34
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 25, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, volatility-based, contrarian, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total