Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT, SSO w/ TECL, & UPRO w/ CURE
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market “calm vs. chaos” strategy: it shifts from aggressive leveraged tech/healthcare, to the S&P 500, to a stock/bond mix, and finally to long-term Treasury bonds as market turbulence rises.
This strategy checks how “jumpy” the U.S. stock market has been over the last month by looking at SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500.
If the market is extremely jumpy, it moves everything into TLT, a long-term U.S. Treasury bond fund.
If jumpiness is high but not extreme, it holds 75% SPY and 25% TLT.
If the market is only somewhat jumpy, it holds 100% SPY.
If the market is unusually calm, it gets aggressive and splits money equally between TECL (leveraged technology stocks) and CURE (leveraged healthcare stocks).
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets 39.6% annualized returns vs SPY’s 20.9%, with a Calmar near 1. It shifts to Treasuries during turbulence and to levered tech/healthcare in calm markets, offering higher upside with disciplined risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | 1.53 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 691.91% | 14.42% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.88 | |
| 8,510.83% | 33.65% | -1.64% | 13.83% | 1.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$861,082.89Regulatory Fees
$559.83
Total Slippage
$4,182.11
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 21, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility targeting, regime switching, tactical allocation, leveraged sector rotation, stocks and bonds