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Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT & SSO w/ TECL
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

Volatility-driven, daily-rebalanced tilts among SPY, TLT, and levered bets TECL/UPRO; uses a 21-day SPY volatility rule to pick 75/25 (SPY/TLT), 100% SPY, or 50/50 TECL/UPRO, with SHY replaced by TLT and SSO by TECL in the leverage regime.
NutHow it works
- Every day, check how much SPY’s price has bounced around over the last ~3 weeks (the 21 trading days). This is the volatility signal. - Regime 1 (very high volatility): aim for 75% SPY and 25% TLT (long bonds) to reduce risk while staying exposed to stocks. - Regime 2 (high volatility, but not the very highest): same 75% SPY / 25% TLT tilt. - Regime 3 (low to moderate volatility, but not ultra‑low): switch to 100% SPY (all-in on stocks). - Regime 4 (very low volatility): switch to two levered bets on tech and the broad market, TECL (tech) and UPRO (S&P 500), allocated equally (50/50). - Weights are applied using “weight cash equal” wrappers where applicable, so assets within a chosen regime are split evenly, or with explicit 75/25 splits where coded. - The weights are reset daily (daily rebalance). The substitution note in the title (SHY→TLT, SSO→TECL) reflects using long-duration bonds instead of short-term and switching from a 2x S&P bet to a 3x tech/broad market pair when volatility is extremely low. Important risk: levered ETFs can amplify losses and their performance depends on market path; this strategy is not a long-run fixed mix but a conditional, regime-based approach that can swing quickly with volatility. The intended feel is “Kelly‑inspired” in spirit (adjusting exposure with risk signals) but the code does not implement a formal Kelly fraction.
CheckmarkValue prop
Volatility-tilt, daily rebalancing among SPY, TLT and levered bets TECL/UPRO. Out-of-sample: ~44% annualized vs SPY ~21%, with bond hedges in high vol and leverage in low vol—higher upside with regime-based risk control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.081.640.610.78
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
880.97%14.66%-1.77%0.2%0.88
7,536.7%29.65%-3.9%-3.61%0.9
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$763,670.23
Regulatory Fees
$664.24
Total Slippage
$3,890.25
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 14, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-based tilts, dynamic asset allocation, bond-equity mix, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toTECLandUPRO. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 33.80%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 45.21%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.