Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT & SSO w/ TECL
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Volatility-driven, daily-rebalanced tilts among SPY, TLT, and levered bets TECL/UPRO; uses a 21-day SPY volatility rule to pick 75/25 (SPY/TLT), 100% SPY, or 50/50 TECL/UPRO, with SHY replaced by TLT and SSO by TECL in the leverage regime.
- Every day, check how much SPY’s price has bounced around over the last ~3 weeks (the 21 trading days). This is the volatility signal.
- Regime 1 (very high volatility): aim for 75% SPY and 25% TLT (long bonds) to reduce risk while staying exposed to stocks.
- Regime 2 (high volatility, but not the very highest): same 75% SPY / 25% TLT tilt.
- Regime 3 (low to moderate volatility, but not ultra‑low): switch to 100% SPY (all-in on stocks).
- Regime 4 (very low volatility): switch to two levered bets on tech and the broad market, TECL (tech) and UPRO (S&P 500), allocated equally (50/50).
- Weights are applied using “weight cash equal” wrappers where applicable, so assets within a chosen regime are split evenly, or with explicit 75/25 splits where coded.
- The weights are reset daily (daily rebalance). The substitution note in the title (SHY→TLT, SSO→TECL) reflects using long-duration bonds instead of short-term and switching from a 2x S&P bet to a 3x tech/broad market pair when volatility is extremely low. Important risk: levered ETFs can amplify losses and their performance depends on market path; this strategy is not a long-run fixed mix but a conditional, regime-based approach that can swing quickly with volatility. The intended feel is “Kelly‑inspired” in spirit (adjusting exposure with risk signals) but the code does not implement a formal Kelly fraction.
Volatility-tilt, daily rebalancing among SPY, TLT and levered bets TECL/UPRO. Out-of-sample: ~44% annualized vs SPY ~21%, with bond hedges in high vol and leverage in low vol—higher upside with regime-based risk control.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 1.64 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880.97% | 14.66% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.88 | |
| 7,536.7% | 29.65% | -3.9% | -3.61% | 0.9 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$763,670.23Regulatory Fees
$664.24
Total Slippage
$3,890.25
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 14, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-based tilts, dynamic asset allocation, bond-equity mix, leveraged etfs