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Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT & SSO w/ TECL
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily volatility thermometer for stocks: adds long Treasuries when markets get jumpy, sticks with plain S&P 500 in normal times, and uses leveraged tech/market ETFs only when conditions are very calm.
NutHow it works
Each day it checks how bumpy the last month has been for the S&P 500 (SPY). If very bumpy, it holds 50% long-term US Treasuries (TLT) and 50% SPY. If moderately bumpy, 75% SPY/25% TLT. If normal, 100% SPY. If very calm, it goes aggressive: 50% TECL (3x Technology) and 50% UPRO (3x S&P 500). Rebalanced daily.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample edge: ~44% annualized vs SPY’s ~21%, Calmar ~0.98, Sharpe ~1.06. Volatility-driven: leverages tech only in calm markets and adds Treasuries in turbulence—higher upside with risk controls, but larger drawdowns in stress.

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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 14, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-based,tactical asset allocation,leveraged etfs,us equities,us treasuries,risk-on/risk-off,daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toTECLandUPRO. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 36.59%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 45.21%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.