Volatility and Kelly Symphony - Replace SHY w/ TLT & SSO w/ TECL
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A simple market-stress strategy: take big leveraged stock bets when markets are calm, then shift gradually into the S&P 500 and long-term Treasury bonds as volatility rises.
It uses the recent bumpiness of the U.S. stock market (measured from SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500) as a danger gauge.
If the market has been very calm, it buys two aggressive stock funds: UPRO (3x the S&P 500) and TECL (3x U.S. technology stocks).
If markets get a bit shakier, it moves to plain SPY.
If shakiness rises more, it mixes in TLT, a fund holding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
If markets are very turbulent, it holds 50% SPY and 50% TLT.
Dynamic, volatility-timed strategy aims for outsized upside vs the S&P 500: ~35% annualized return out-of-sample vs ~19%. It shifts into leveraged tech/broad exposure in calm markets and hedges with bonds in turbulence, accepting higher drawdown risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 | 1.68 | 0.6 | 0.78 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,030.15% | 15.02% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.91 | |
| 9,507.18% | 30.13% | -20.51% | -12.48% | 0.9 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$960,718.15Regulatory Fees
$712.55
Total Slippage
$5,170.76
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 14, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility switching, tactical asset allocation, leveraged equity, technology tilt, treasury hedge, daily rebalance