Volatility and Kelly Symphony
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A 50/50 blend of a volatility-based throttle and a long-term trend rule: dial up S&P 500 (even with 2x/3x funds) when calm or trending up; shift toward Treasuries/T‑bills when choppy or trending down. Uses SPY, SHY, BIL, SSO, and UPRO.
It splits your money 50/50 into two parts.
1) A “volatility throttle”: checks how bumpy the last month of S&P 500 (SPY) has been. Very calm → uses leveraged S&P funds (SSO/UPRO). As bumps rise, it steps down to SPY, then adds short‑term Treasuries (SHY).
2) A trend rule: if SPY is above its 200‑day average, it holds 3x S&P 500 (UPRO); otherwise it sits in T‑bills (BIL). Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample annualized return 25.3% vs 18.2% for the S&P. The strategy leverages in calm uptrends and shifts to Treasuries in risk-off regimes, using volatility throttle plus trend rules for higher upside with active risk control—note larger drawdowns (~28%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 1.44 | 0.65 | 0.8 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880.97% | 14.66% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.88 | |
| 3,582.67% | 24.11% | -5.69% | -2.44% | 0.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$368,267.34Regulatory Fees
$365.70
Total Slippage
$1,841.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, volatility targeting, trend following, leveraged etfs, s&p 500, risk-on/risk-off