A volatility-aware, rule-based hedge strategy that switches between a high-volatility hedge (SVXY + leveraged bets on tech and healthcare) and a broader medium-hedge mix (tech, gold, bonds, USD, commodities) based on short-term volatility signals and longer-term momentum. It uses a cash baseline, multiple lookbacks (21, 20, 126 days), and levered/inverse ETFs to manage risk and opportunistically seek downside protection and selective upside.

- The system starts from a cash baseline and looks for volatility-driven signals to decide where to invest. - It uses a short-term volatility gauge (RSI on a volatility proxy like VIXM) as the trigger: if volatility is high (RSI above a threshold, around 70), it moves into a high-volatility hedged basket. - The high-volatility basket focuses on a short-volatility hedge (SVXY) plus leveraged bets on growth (TQQQ) and a healthcare levered vehicle (CURE). The rotation among SVXY, TQQQ, and CURE is governed by short-term momentum (cumulative returns over a short window, e.g., 5 days) and short-term vol signals (20-day window for inverse-vol components). - If the high-volatility condition is not met, the strategy shifts to a “Medium Hedge” allocation. This basket includes a broader mix: tech exposure (vialevered bets like TQQQ), gold (GLD), broad bonds (TLT, TMF, TMV depending on signals), USD (UUP), and commodities (DBC). The decisions hinge on longer-term momentum comparisons (126-day cumulative returns) among assets like SPY, DBC, UUP, GLD, and Treasury instruments, with several nested checks to decide which hedges to emphasize. - The plan uses several unusually short and long lookbacks: 21-day windows for recent momentum or inverse-vol signals, 20-day windows for certain inverse-vol mixes, and 126-day windows for longer-term trend checks. - The “AAA Medium Hedge” branch acts as a secondary hedge priority if the high-volatility branch is not activated. It tends to favor a diversified risk-off mix (tech, gold, bonds, USD, commodities) with rules that compare performance of SPY to other assets and adjust exposures accordingly. - Rebalancing is not on a fixed calendar; decisions are signal-driven within a narrow corridor (0.1), and the system may switch baskets when a condition is met. - The intent is to reduce drawdowns in volatile regimes by using hedges and inverse-vol exposures, while attempting to capture upside via selective leveraged bets in growth, healthcare, and other assets when conditions are favorable. - Important caveats for a layperson: 3x leveraged ETFs (like TQQQ, TMF) can magnify gains but also magnify losses; SVXY is an inverse-vol ETF that tends to gain when volatility falls but lose when volatility spikes further. The combination aims to balance risk but can be volatile itself. This is a sophisticated, regime-switching approach that favors risk management and conditional exposure over fixed stock-market beta exposure.

Volatility-aware strategy that shifts between hedged/leverage bets and a diversified hedge mix. Offers SPY diversification with similar OOS upside (~21.4% vs 21.9%), but features a lower risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ~0.9) and higher drawdowns (~34.7%).