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About
A daily, tactical mix that plays volatility pops when stocks look overheated, shorts volatility when calm, and otherwise rotates among leveraged Nasdaq/Treasuries, cash, the dollar, or short Treasuries based on simple stress signals.
Each day it asks: are stocks overheated? It uses a 0–100 “heat” score (RSI).
- If very hot (>72), it bets on a jump in fear using VIX funds (UVIX/UVXY/VIXM).
- If not, and bonds act steadier than cash, it bets on calm with SVXY (short volatility).
- Otherwise it’s risk-on/risk-off: if fear surges, sit in T‑Bills (BIL); if healthy, hold mostly a 3x Nasdaq fund (TQQQ) with some long Treasuries (TMF); if weak, hold the U.S. dollar (UUP) and a 3x short‑Treasury fund (TMV). Sized by recent volatility; rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample, this volatility-driven, regime-based strategy targets far higher upside than the S&P: ~38% annualized return vs ~21%, Calmar ~1.29, max drawdown ~29.5%. Diversified across volatility, Nasdaq-100 and Treasuries for growth.
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OOS Start Date
Oct 25, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility-timing, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, vix, nasdaq-100, treasuries, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks