VIX up, SPY Down, Educational Content
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A weekly, cash-equal, rule-based approach that tilts between SPXL (3x long S&P 500) and SPXS (3x inverse S&P 500) using short-term volatility and momentum cues (via VXX/RSI and SPY returns), with cash as the base, and occasional hedging/educational signals. It targets short-term market timing rather than long-term holding.
The system runs every week and divides capital evenly across its potential positions rather than overloading on one bet. It uses several signal lanes to decide what to own:
- If VXX-based momentum is high (a proxy for market fear is strong), and recent SPY performance has been weak, it tends to favor SPXS (the 3x inverse S&P 500 ETF) to hedge or profit from a downturn.
- If fear is low (VXX-based signal is weak) and market momentum is positive, it tends to favor SPXL (the 3x levered long S&P 500 ETF) to capture upside.
- There are additional conditional threads that touch on other signals (such as SPY’s recent performance over a few days, sometimes interacting with SPXL or SPXS, and occasional reference to TLT as a hedging/alternative signal).
- An “educational content” element appears as part of the decision tree, suggesting that the strategy may insert informative content or thematic checks alongside the trading logic rather than being a pure signal generator.
The structure uses short-term indicators (RSI over a few days, 5- to 10-day windows) and short lookback returns (1- to 5-day SPY, SPY vs. threshold like -3%) to decide whether to tilt toward SPXL, SPXS, or stay in cash. The use of TLT in one branch suggests a potential hedging or diversification check, but the core tradable positions are SPXL, SPXS, and SPY as the anchor. Overall, it’s a rule-based, weekly-timed, volatility- and momentum-driven tilt toward leveraged bets on the S&P 500, with cash as a risk-control anchor and occasional educational/alternative content layers.
Out-of-sample, this strategy aims for ~45.7% annualized returns vs ~22.3% for the S&P, with Calmar ~1.09. Weekly, cash-backed tilts between SPXL/SPXS seek bigger upside, but come with higher drawdown (~42%).
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 23, 2022
Trading Setting
Weekly
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, market timing, volatility-based, momentum, risk management, educational content
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total