VIX Mid-Term Futures: SPY RSI predicts VIX (3 tickers)
Today’s Change (Apr 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based VIX strategy: uses SPY’s short-term RSI to time when to own VIX funds (ZVOL for quick spikes, VXZ for mid-term moves) or stay in PULS (cash-like). Skips entries when UVXY shows vol is overheated; blends 2–10 day signals daily.
Goal: profit from moves in the VIX (the market’s “fear index”). Each day it reads SPY’s 2–10 day RSI (a 0–100 speedometer of recent gains/losses).
- If RSI < 25 (market stressed): buy ZVOL (leveraged short‑term VIX) unless UVXY’s RSI > 70 (vol overheated); then hold PULS (cash‑like).
- If RSI > 80 (market very calm/hot): buy VXZ (mid‑term VIX).
- Else: hold PULS.
Blends these signals (tilted to shortest lookbacks) and rebalances daily.
Stronger upside with built-in risk control: SPY RSI timing shifts into VIX futures, delivering ~28.7% annualized out-of-sample vs SPY ~14.8%, with max drawdown ~5.7% and Sharpe ~2.60 vs ~0.83. Clear risk-adjusted advantage.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.57% | 18.43% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 1.19 | |
| 141.78% | 34.96% | 5.28% | 10.11% | 2.98 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$24,178.09Regulatory Fees
$101.86
Total Slippage
$539.92
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 29, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility, vix futures etps, tactical, rsi, ensemble, daily rebalance, cash overlay