VIX Mid-Term Futures: SPY RSI predicts VIX (3 tickers)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Daily, it reads how stretched SPY is. Very weak SPY: usually short volatility (ZVOL/SVXY) unless panic is extreme, then sit in PULS. Very strong SPY: go long mid-term VIX via VXZ. Otherwise, hold PULS. Goal: capture volatility swings with a risk brake.
Aims to profit from swings in market volatility (VIX). Each day it checks the S&P 500 (SPY) over 2–10 days with RSI, a 0–100 gauge of recent moves (low=fallen hard, high=run up). If SPY is very weak, it usually shorts volatility via an inverse VIX fund (ZVOL; use SVXY if needed) unless a panic filter says vol is already extreme (then it holds a cash-like fund, PULS). If SPY is very strong, it buys a mid-term VIX fund (VXZ). Otherwise it stays in PULS.
Out-of-sample edge: ~34.5% annualized return vs SPY ~15.4%; max drawdown ~5.7% vs ~18.8%; Sharpe ~2.76 vs ~0.86; Calmar ~6.05. Higher risk-adjusted upside with far smaller drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.86% | 19.58% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.26 | |
| 149.83% | 37.17% | 2.88% | 9.54% | 2.85 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$24,983.16Regulatory Fees
$115.73
Total Slippage
$638.28
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 27, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility/vix, rsi-based tactical, daily rebalance, derivatives etps, risk-managed, short-term signals