VIX Mid-Term Futures: SPY RSI predicts VIX (3 tickers)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based VIX strategy: read SPY’s short‑term “hot/cold.” Buy fast vol (ZVOL) on sharp selloffs unless VIX is overheated; buy mid‑term vol (VXZ) when stocks are very hot and calm; otherwise park in PULS. Uses 9 lookbacks, rebalanced daily.
Goal: profit from swings in market volatility (the VIX). It reads a simple 0–100 “hot/cold” meter on the S&P 500 (SPY). If SPY is very cold (<25), buy a fast short‑term VIX fund (ZVOL) unless VIX is already red‑hot (UVXY high); then sit in a cash‑like bond fund (PULS). If SPY is very hot (>80), buy a calmer mid‑term VIX note (VXZ). Otherwise hold PULS. It splits money across 9 lookbacks (2–10 days), weighted to faster ones, and rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample: annualized return ~34.5% vs SPY ~15.4%; Sharpe ~2.76 vs 0.86; drawdown ~5.7% vs 18.8%; Calmar ~6.05. A rules-based volatility strategy offering far higher risk-adjusted returns and stronger downside protection than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71.45% | 20.74% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1.32 | |
| 145.83% | 36.94% | 2.5% | 7.19% | 2.84 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$24,582.72Regulatory Fees
$114.07
Total Slippage
$629.68
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 27, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Volatility, tactical etf rotation, vix futures etps, systematic, daily rebalanced