Vigilant Asset Allocation Approximation
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
A very defensive, one-holding-at-a-time strategy. Each month: if US, foreign, emerging stocks and broad bonds have all been rising on average over ~30 trading days, buy the strongest of them; otherwise, buy the strongest of three safer bond funds.
Each month it checks four big markets—US stocks (SPY), foreign stocks (EFA), emerging stocks (EEM), and broad US bonds (AGG). If all four have, on average, risen over the last ~30 trading days, it buys the single strongest of those four. If not, it buys the strongest “safer” bond fund among LQD, IEF, and SHY. Hold for a month, then recheck.
Defensive, monthly momentum strategy that stays safer in downturns. Out-of-sample: Sharpe 1.76 vs SPY 1.14, max drawdown 5.2% vs 14.7%, beta ~0.16. Lower risk, clearer rules, and a stronger risk-adjusted profile versus the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.31 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 873.86% | 10.76% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.64 | |
| 384.73% | 7.34% | 4.39% | 8.1% | 0.6 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$48,473.48Regulatory Fees
$179.36
Total Slippage
$1,161.13
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 2, 2025
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical allocation, global equities, bonds, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, monthly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
LQD
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks